The 2024 US Presidential Election
A Postmortem
A Postmortem
Vocabulary
result | promise | postmortem |
poll | promise | status quo |
vote | tight (2) | sentiment |
data | issue (2) | big/bigger/biggest |
dive (2) | concern | private (3) |
crisis | sluggish | no two ways about it |
fear | way (2) | transgender |
cost | campaign | cost of living |
mess | public (3) | underestimate |
create | strength | considered |
clear | abortion | the big picture |
priority | point (4) | give/gave/given |
contest | head (3) | immigration |
theory | block (4) | voting block |
rally | election | hammer (2) |
add | coalition | lead/led/led |
care | right (5) | compared to |
weak | increase | resonate (2) |
among | pitch (4) | win/won/won |
recap | abortion | underestimate |
guess | last time | believe it or not |
base (2) | calculate | border (2) |
focus | alienate | lose/lost/lost |
float | support | takeaway (2) |
hurt | exit poll | cut through (2) |
gender | strategy | cut/cut/cut |
distinct | state (3) | strike a cord |
denial | sentiment | read/read/read |
key (2) | abandon | completely |
off (3) | narrative | keep/kept/kept |
cord | recession | pay the price |
rant | compete | go too far (2) |
fake | electorate | say/said/said |
mock | garbage | eat/ate/eaten |
anger | credit (2) | perception |
repeat | mistake | underestimate |
race (2) | flock (2) | important/more important/most important) |
Video
Transcript
So the results are in it’s now time for a postmortem. The polls promised us a tight contest — but this is anything but. So what did result day tell us about the public sentiment? Let’s dive into the voting data.
The biggest issue this time was the economy, no two ways about it. For 39% of the voters it was the Number ONE concern, whether it’s sluggish jobs . . . or recession fears . . . or the cost of living crisis that’s the top issue.
At number two was immigrant; the mess that’s been created at the southern border. 20% voters called it their most important issue.
So that’s 59% for economy and border; two issues that are considered to be Trump’s strength.
And what about abortion? It was number three at 11%.
So the big picture is clear 59% voters gave priority to Trump’s biggest campaign points — only 11% gave priority to Harris’s biggest promise.
Which brings us to voting blocks.
We heard a lot of theories heading into election day that women would flock to Harris . . . that Latinos would abandon Trump.
Did any of the any of that actually happen?
The simple answer is no. Around 54% women voted for Kamala Harris; 44% voted for Trump. So yes Harris got more women votes but Trump’s share is actually 2% up from 2020. So he’s added more women voters to his Coalition.
Now Harris’s pitch was simple: only she can protect protect abortion rights in America — but clearly that did not resonate.
Maybe women are not single issue voters: they care about things beyond abortion too.
Secondly black and Latino voters. Again a so-called weakness for Trump. Trump won 45% of Hispanic voters this time; Harris won 53%.
So yes she leads — but Trump’s share has increased and listen to this it it has increased by 13% compared to 2020. So once again he’s added to his coalition.
Among black voters, he stands at 12% which is unchanged from the last election. Among black men he’s up 1% from the last time; he’s up.
So to recap, more women and Latinos voted for Trump this time.
But guess who did not? Believe it or not white voters: Trump is down 3% among white voters compared to last year.
Now remember these are all exit polls. The official results do not calculate race or gender.
But it does tell a story. The narrative was that Trump alienated voters of color. A lot of focus was was on his rally in New York — one of his supporters called Puerto Rico floating garbage.
But none of that has hurt his support base.
Clearly this was a vote cutting through race and gender a vote on the state of the economy, the state of the border . . . basically a vote against the current status quo in America.
And credit to Trump because his team read the sentiment well.
The Democrats talked about joy . . . about democracy being in danger . . . about Trump’s denial of the 2020 results . . .
But they were completely off. Those were not the key issues this time. The key issues were the economy and the border.
Trump kept hammering down on these issues even on election eve, and you can see the result.
Plus some of the democratic talking points simply did not strike a cord for example transgender rights. Perhaps the push was well intentioned.
But this wasn’t the election to do it. Exit polls found 50% of the voters said that trans rights had gone too far . . . Remember those Trump rants about men competing in women’s sports? Well they seem to have resonated.
Same with the fake news about migrants eating dogs and cats. Harris mocked Trump for saying all of that.
But the electorate was deeply concerned about the border.
So the biggest takeaway from this election is this the Democrats completely misread it whether it was the anger against the economy the anger against Joe Biden or the perception about Kamala Harris.
She wasn’t seen as distinct from Biden — she was very much seen as part of the problem.
In 2016 the Democrats underestimated Donald Trump — and they paid the price for it this time they did not repeat that mistake.
But they did underestimate the voter. In any election anywhere in the world that’s a losing strategy.
Questions
Democracy, Republic. In this video, the presenter made predictions about the 2024 US Presidential election. True or false?
Vote, Election. Was the main issue for most US voters abortion and LGBTQ issues?
Rally, Campaign. Did both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump highlight abortion and LGBTQ issues in their election campaigns?
Speech, Debate. All American women, Latinos, and African-Americans voted for Kamala; while all White men voted for Trump. Is this right or wrong?
Poll. Have voting patterns changed since 2020?
Legislature, Congress, Senate. How do you compare the narratives of Trump and Kamala?
Represent, Public Office. Describe the economy and immigration during President Joe Biden’s term?
Executive, President, Prime Minister. “So the biggest takeaway from this election is this: the Democrats completely misread it . . . But they did underestimate the voter.” What do these mean?
Political Party. Has there been much interest in the US Presidential election (in your country and among your friends and colleagues)?
Endorsement. My friends and I are keen on politics. Yes or no?
Advertisement. Are there political polarizations in your country?
Constituency, Electorate. What might happen in the future?
Term. What could or should people do?
Transition of Power. If you were the president or prime minister, and the parliament or congress, what would you do?